The Covid Vaccines: “One & Dones” “Vax Stacks” & 3 Other Things You Probably Didn’t Think About

Immediately following the news breaking about the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and, subsequently, those of Moderna and AstraZeneca, I saw a lot of what I would call “uncautious optimism.” Below are 5 issues that I think many people may have overlooked.

1. We don’t know how long they’ll protect us from Covid for. Up to 6 months of protection? Up to a year? Longer? Keep in mind that you can never really know for certain when a vaccine has worn off other than by testing positive for whatever illness it’s supposed to protect you from. This isn’t ideal, of course, but it is reality.
2. Pre-Covid life with the flu was different. In your pre-Covid life, hopefully you got the flu vaccine. The fact that you didn’t know exactly when its protection wore off probably wasn’t that big of a deal to you. That’s because, whether you actually chose to get a shot or not, chances were really good that you’d be okay. The flu is no biggie, right? No mask, no distancing, no problem.
3. Masks and distancing will still be required. Covid is a bigger deal. It’s both more contagious and deadly than the seasonal flu. In addition, we still lack broadly effective treatments to serve as a backstop once a Covid vaccine wears off, or in the event that it fails to protect you as intended. Therefore our lives won’t instantly return to pre-Covid “frictionless normal.” We’ll need to continue wearing masks and practicing distancing, at least for a while, at least in some situations.
4. “One & Dones”: The latest Covid vaccines require 2 shots. There’s a good chance that public compliance will suck, to put it bluntly. In other words, we’ll have plenty of what I call “one and dones,” that is, people who get 1 shot and for whatever reason don’t come back for the 2nd. How much protection, if any, can the average person expect from 1 shot? That’s a complex question. We don’t have the answer yet. Public education efforts combined with digital vaccination certificates will help us reduce the incidence of “one and dones.”
5. “Vax Stacks”: Soon we’re going to have several Covid vaccines to choose from. You can bet that at least a few people will “stack” (combine) two or more of them in an effort to boost their protection, especially if they’re free or relatively cheap. (I can hear it now: “What’s your vax stack?”) What are the possible adverse effects of vaccine stacking? Again, complex question. Again, we don’t know. As with “one and dones,” public education and digital vaccination certificates will help tremendously here.
6. “CoviDollars”: All of the above serves as yet another reason why giving people an economic nudge in the form of a stimulus “bonus” check may help us get out of this mess faster — with or without a vaccine. For more on that, please read my CoviDollars piece. It recently inspired an article by Bloomberg Businessweek economics editor Peter Coy.